2022 elections were good for America

David Webber, Columbia MISSOURIAN, November 11,2022

The 2022 elections were not a “red wave” or a “blue wave” but a red, white, and blue wave that will prove to be good for America.

The Senate majority will likely be decided in another Georgia runoff on Dec. 6, and the House of Representatives almost certainly will flip to the Republicans, albeit with a slim margin.

Now for a third midterm election (2006 and 2018), the president’s party suffered minimal seats lost. Only in 2010, when President Obama’s party lost 64 seats did the recent midterm loss reach flood proportions. Since 1946, the president’s party typically loses 26 seats in the House. Many election observers anticipated Republicans would pick up 30 to 40 House seats. It’s likely the increase in Republican seats will be 10 or less.

Election outcomes are due to a combination of candidate, party and external factors. Voter surveys suggest that inflation, abortion and protecting democracy were three significant influences on how voters decided.

Compared with the 1994 midterm, which I wrote about last week, the congressional races did not seem to be “nationalized,” rather they were decided one district — and one state in the case of the Senate — at a time.

As the late Speaker of the House Tip O’Neil once observed, “All politics is local.” This seems to be the case in 2022.

In some states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New York, for example, abortion activists claim to have contributed substantially to Democratic success. Additionally, young voter turnout was more than 30% compared with the historical expectation of 20%. Researchers say the 2022 election had second highest young voter turnout in last 30 years. Overall, turnout is estimated to have been 46.2% of voting-aged population, down slightly from 2018, but higher in so-called battleground states. 

There were lots of close races, and some not so close. Perhaps the biggest surprise is how Republican Florida has become with Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio soundly defeating two quality Democratic opponents 20 points and 15 points, respectively. The opposite result was Pennsylvania, where Democrats Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman were elected first term governor and senators respectively, in races not as close as expected. In Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance won election to the Senate handily, in what was expected to be a nail-biter.

Missouri had no big surprises. Boone County is solidly Democrat with Kip Kendrick winning he top prize, Boone County presiding commissioner, by more than 10 points. Missouri is solidly Republican with Republican Eric Schmidt defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine by 15 points. This may have been the least surprising election result in 2022. It is just not realistic for a newcomer to enter a race rather late and defeat a statewide officeholder of the better organized party.

Democrats picked up four seats in the state House, but are still locked into the minority. While fortunes can change quickly in politics, Missouri Democrats do not seem to have a bright future. Republicans have all the statewide offices, both Senate seats, six of eight House seats. Missouri is no longer a bellwether, or purple, state. Democrats need young leaders in a well-funded organization who can recruit quality candidates in 114 counties.

American politics has been stalled, watching and waiting, for several years due to the heavy impact of Roe v. Wade and the shadow of Donald Trump. Regardless of personal preferences, it is good that states are considering abortion resolutions so that we settle this issue and move on. Three states, California, Michigan and Vermont, enacted abortion protections and two states — Kentucky and Montana — defeated anti-abortion measures.

Across the nation, many Trump-endorsed candidates and highly visible election deniers, were defeated. While it’s impossible to predict Trump’s individual behavior, it seems likely that his hopes of being the Republican nominee again in 2024 will not be realized. It’s time for a change.

Another transition set in motion by the 2022 election will be the House Democratic leadership. It’s about time. With the Democrats being in the minority, it’s likely that current speaker Nancy Pelosi, and perhaps Majority leader Steny Hoyer, both over 80, will step down.

Republican congressional House and Senate leadership will be a challenging place to be. Reportedly Sen. Josh Hawley will not support Mitch McConnell as Republican Senate leader, putting newcomer Sen.-elect Eric Schmitt right into the fire. Likewise, with the House Republicans having the slimmest of majorities, the speaker will constantly be in the hot seat. It remains to be seen if the House Republicans are cooperative or confrontational with the Biden administration.

So far, the 2022 elections appear to have been conducted without controversy. There were long lines and broken equipment in several states, but no polling place blockades or cries of voter fraud. Let’s hope the newly-elected officials take their jobs seriously and focus on governing.

webberd@missouri.edu

Let Greitens’ legacy be a step toward campaign and election reform

David Webber, Columbia MISSOURIAN June 1, 2018

Last week, I wrote about how President Donald Trump’s and then governor Eric Greitens’ outsider status, while helpful in getting them elected, failed to prepare them for governing.This week I will dream big and sketch out a reformed electoral system for state-wide offices. State legislative and local offices should have campaign processes designed for plenty of opportunity for new faces and new blood, but state-wide offices, certainly the top spot, should attract experienced officeholders.

Campaigns and elections are overly ripe, some would say rotten, for reform. There are court-imposed obstacles and political interests that can block any significant reform, but the starting point is for party leaders to visualize their ideal selection process, and then seek the advice of election lawyers.

Political parties have always been a murky institution in American politics. We never have clearly decided what they are and whether we even like them, but there needs to be some kind of winnowing process before voters make the final choice among candidates. Missouri political parties need to be more visible, and more central to individual candidates. For almost 50 years now, “running against the party” can earn a candidate a substantial level of support. Many candidates choose to downplay, or even avoid, their party label. Similarly, most voters have no meaningful connection to a political party.

Political parties need to do more than just candidate recruitment. They need to set standards for conducting good campaigns such as expectations about negative advertising, sharing voter information, and disseminating party platforms and positions. It is unlikely that state party committees will judge a candidate’s fitness for office, but voters need help in enforcing expectations of candidates.

As far as term limited elected officials are concerned, with fewer print state-focused political reporters, and an almost infinite array of internet outlets of unknown veracity, there is an empty hole in need of credible, institutional memory.

Political parties can contribute to filling this hole by establishing high quality quarterly policy forums, complete with streaming and podcasts, that aim to elevate the level of public discourse. Otherwise, citizens see no purpose for political parties other than bickering during another campaign cycle.
Greitens’ downfall and resignation serve to highlight three of the major flaws and pitfalls in the American campaign and election system. Greitens is not unique but his rapid rise and steep fall shines a bright light on needed changes.

First, Greitens won 40 percent of the vote in the 2016 Republican primary. About a quarter million votes in a state of more than 6 million people. Certainly a strong showing in a four-candidate race, especially for someone who was not a life-long Republican, but Greitens’ victory that day was short of a majority of voters and far shorter of a consensus.

We need to adopt election rules that require a majority, or even a super-majority, rather than just “the most votes.” A simple method of ranking all candidates or requiring a runoff will expose candidates to more of the electorate. An approval voting method is better than the present “first past the post” method because it encourages multiple candidates, but assures that a candidate with only a sliver of support is not the winner. Keep an eye on Maine’s recent adoption of instant runoff voting.

Secondly, Greitens, like most candidates nowadays, was largely independent of his own party. He raised his own money, a lot of it from unknown sources outside of Missouri, and ran his own campaign.

Greitens was heavily critical of Missouri legislative and political leaders and they apparently had little influence over him. There is just too much money coming and going, some of it delivered in cash for payment of legal services, for citizens to have confidence that the public interest is being pursued.
Public funding, spending caps, and centralized party funding all need to be considered. State-wide candidates need party funding or ambition and dark money will rule.

My most specific suggestion that would revolutionize American politics is as follows: let’s restore citizenship and federalism and limit campaign contributions to state residents. Why are residents from California, Massachusetts, Texas, or other states contributing to Missouri campaigns?
Third, voters are largely unengaged and uninformed. There were media reports of Greitens’ questionable campaign donors before the November 2016 election but it was not a campaign issue. It is likely that if it had not been for the Governor’s sex saga, probably not an impeachable offense, that Grietens’ alleged campaign violations would have been ignored.

Few voters understand, or need to understand, Missouri campaign reporting requirements, dark money, or provisions of the state’s sunshine law. Most candidates don’t either. Unfortunately, universities and the media have done little to serve Missourians’ civic information needs.
Democracy, a political system that converts citizen preferences into public policy decisions, is hard to achieve and maintain but can easily be imitated and distorted for personal political gain.

Inscribed around the top of the dome of the Missouri state capitol are the words from George Washington’s Farewell Address: In proportion as the structure of a government gives force to public opinion, it is essential that public opinion should be enlightened.

David Webber joined the MU Political Science Department in 1986 and wrote his first column for the Missourian in 1994.

https://www.columbiamissourian.com/opinion/local_columnists/david-webber-let-greitens-legacy-be-a-step-toward-campaign/article_26d8e96a-6549-11e8-aa34-5b1dd35789fa.html